Preoperative testing: Bayes theorem

Statistics

Bayes’ theorem (with regards to preoperative testing) states that the post-test probability of a person having a disease is related to both the sensitivity and specificity of said test AND the prevalence of the disease in the population – this can be summarized by the concept of positive predictive value (PPV), the percentage of positive test results which are actually true:

PPV = true positives / (true positives + false positives)

PPV = (sensitivity x prevalence ) /

64%

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2010

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